Playoff chances already dwindling, hard decisions nearing for Phillies

This is not how anyone drew up the 2026 Phillies. A club that won at least 95 games in consecutive seasons is 9-19 through 28 games — tied for the worst record in baseball.

There have been few bright spots outside of Bryce Harper’s offensive output, Brandon Marsh’s continued success and the return of Zack Wheeler.

Needless to say, the Phillies’ playoff chances are already slipping. It is not even May.

Baseball history says a 10-games-under-.500 start like this usually buries a team.

Since schedules expanded to 162 games in 1961, only two teams in full seasons have reached the postseason after starting with a .321 winning percentage through 28 games: the 1974 Pirates and the 2024 Astros. The strike-shortened 1981 Royals did it too, but that came in a 103-game season. Both the Pirates and Astros finished with 88 wins.

With the Phillies sitting 10 1/2 games out in the NL East, the division already feels like a long shot. FanDuel has them at 6-1 to win it, a little better than 14 percent implied probability.

The Wild Card feels more realistic, at least on paper.

Since the playoff field expanded in 2022, Wild Card teams have come in from a wide range. The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and were a Wild Card. The Braves and Marlins each won 84 in 2023 and got in. The average in those four seasons is in between 89 and 90 wins.

Say 88 wins is the target, though. The Phillies would need to play .590 baseball the rest of the way. That is basically a 96-win pace over a full season, the same win total they reached in 2025. Right now, they look nowhere close to playing at that level.

That’s why change feels less like a dramatic idea and more like something that could come soon.

MANAGERIAL AND FRONT OFFICE CONTEXT

To understand why, it helps to look at how Dave Dombrowski has handled in-season disappointment before, and what that has meant for managers under him.

In his final season as general manager of the Expos in 1991, Dombrowski fired Buck Rodgers after a 20-29 start. In 1996 with the Marlins, he fired Rene Lachemann after a 40-47 start. In 2001, again in Florida, he fired John Boles after a 22-26 start. Then, in his first season running the Tigers in 2002, he fired Phil Garner after an 0-6 start, tied for the quickest in-season managerial firing in modern baseball history.

Fast forward to Philadelphia. In 2022, after a 22-29 start and with the Phillies 12 1/2 games back in the East, Dombrowski fired Joe Girardi, saying the club needed a “new voice.” Rob Thomson took over on an interim basis, went 65-46 and led the Phillies to the World Series. From there, Thomson never looked back.

He became the fastest manager in Phillies history to reach 350 wins. That is part of what makes this current moment tricky.

The Phillies are in a hole, but Thomson is not Girardi in 2022. He has earned real trust in the building. He has won a lot of regular-season games. He has helped steer the club out of a hole before. The Phillies picked up his 2026 option and later extended him through 2027. The respect and loyalty are clearly there.

Dombrowski also said last Tuesday in Chicago that he likes to evaluate his club more seriously around the 40-game mark. That lines up fairly well with how he has handled prior in-season moves. So while Thomson spoke Sunday about his job security, it still feels more likely that he gets more time.

That does not mean no change is coming.

A staff shakeup feels much more plausible. Hitting coach Kevin Long would be the obvious name people point to first, but other coaching changes could be in play, too. When a team is this bad across the board, every lever gets looked at.

SHIPPIN’ OUT OF BOSTON

Then there is the Alex Cora wrinkle. The Red Sox fired Cora and several coaches on Saturday, a move that surprised much of the baseball world and naturally got attention in Philadelphia.

Dombrowski hired Cora for his first managerial job in Boston in 2018. They won a World Series together that year and are believed to have a strong relationship. In seven full seasons managing the Red Sox, Cora reached 90 wins twice, including 108 in that first year.

It is at least worth watching. If the Phillies were to move on from Thomson during the season, or even if they stayed the course this year and made a change afterward, Cora’s availability would be notable. He is still owed $14 million over the next two seasons on his Boston deal, which could make him financially easier to pursue.

THE KEY PIECE

The Phillies have been a bad baseball team in every area: hitting, pitching and defense. That is why this is such a difficult fix.

Can a managerial or coaching change alter that? Sure. It worked in Philadelphia before. But there are no guarantees that it would again.

And there are limits to how much the roster can be reshaped from outside. Over the last few trade deadlines, the Phillies have dipped heavily into their farm system. It is not one of the deeper systems in baseball right now, which makes a major in-season talent overhaul tougher to pull off.

On top of that, the club is above the fourth luxury-tax threshold and paying a 110 percent tax on every dollar over it. This is a tough spot.

It is worth noting that the Phillies have hit a tough part of the schedule during this six-series slide. Their last six opponents carried an average winning percentage of .595. The next stretch — Giants, Marlins, A’s, Rockies, Red Sox and Pirates — comes in around .474. If they are going to make a push, now is the time to start.

The Phillies are second in baseball in payroll. A club spending like this is expected to contend, not dig out from 9-19. There is still time left on the calendar, but not much margin.

That is why the next move — whatever it is — feels like it is coming into focus.