Roob's Eagles Observations: Is A.J. Brown even worth a 1st-round pick anymore?

The first Eagles draft I covered was 1988, and the media workroom was a small, dank, windowless concrete room in the basement of the Vet.

Since the internet hadn’t quite been invented yet, we all sat there with a stack of massive draft guides – Buchsbaum, Ourlad’s and Kiper were the gold standard of annual draft books – and when a player was drafted, a guy on a telephone at the front of the room took down the player’s name and wrote it on a big board that we could all see.

That year, the Eagles drafted Oklahoma tight end Keith Jackson 13th overall. I thought they were crazy since Jackson had caught only 13 passes as a senior and only 62 in four seasons. Terrible pick! Bust!

What I didn’t realize is that Oklahoma back then never threw the ball, Jackson never played in a passing offense and the Sooners didn’t have a quarterback who could get the ball down the field. In fact, Oklahoma only had 30 touchdown passes in Jackson’s entire career in Norman. So about one TD pass every 1 ½ games over four years.

How did it go for that bust? Jackson had more catches in his first three NFL games (17) than his entire senior year of college (13). He finished 1988 with 81 catches for 869 yards and six touchdowns and made the first of three straight 1st-team all-pro teams. The 81 catches remained an NFL rookie record for tight ends until Sam LaPorta caught 86 in 2023.

I’ve been wrong a lot in the 37 years since. But I don’t think I’ve ever been that wrong.

That said, here’s our draft-week edition of Roob’s 10 Random Eagles Offseason Observations, with plenty of draft content. You might even find a Donnel Pumphrey reference if you look hard enough.

IS A.J. BROWN STILL WORTH A 1ST-ROUND PICK? I still think Howie Roseman wants to trade A.J. Brown, but I’m starting to get the sense he won’t be getting a 1st-round pick in return. Let’s have an honest talk about Brown. He’ll be 29 in June, and he’s now three years removed from his last elite season. We keep hearing whispers about his knees not being in the best shape and that’s all on top of the obvious distractions and drama he brings to whatever team he’s on. Is he still an elite wide receiver? I think he’s still really good, but he’s also the only NFL WR to drop three passes in a playoff game in the last five years. He’s not what he used to be. First-round picks are the lifeblood of any franchise’s future, and when you make an honest assessment of where Brown is right now as a football player are you going to give up a 1st-round pick and an opportunity to add a 22- or 23-year-old player with his whole career in front of him on a rookie deal for A.J.? I think maybe not. So the question becomes is Howie willing to unload Brown and move on for maybe 2nd- and 4th-round picks in 2027? Probably. I know one thing. If the Eagles draft a wide receiver in the first or second round later this week it’s going to be hard to reconcile that with Brown being an Eagle in 2026. I know Howie has been playing down the connection between the additions of Elijah Moore, Hollywood Brown and Dontayvion Wicks to Brown’s future, and he pretty much has to. But if he takes a WR early, now you’re talking about adding four WRs to the room in the span of a month, and I just don’t think you do that if you expect Brown to be back.

1ST ROUND VS. 2ND ROUND: What’s a better draft haul: The Eagles’ 10-best 1st-round picks ever or their 10-best 2nd-round picks ever? It’s closer than you’d think:
Their 10-best 1st-round picks: Chuck Bednarik, Jerome Brown, Lane Johnson, Fletcher Cox, Donovan McNabb, Mike Quick, Steve Van Buren, Keith Jackson, Tra Thomas, DeVonta Smith.
Their 10-best 2nd-round picks: Brian Dawkins, Eric Allen, Zach Ertz, Jalen Hurts, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Cooper DeJean, Landon Dickerson, Randall Cunningham, Wes Hopkins. It’s close. Honestly, I might take their 2nd-round picks.

A FORGOTTEN 3RD-ROUND DISASTER: Tony Hunt doesn’t get enough love in lists of the worst draft picks in Eagles history. Hunt rushed for over 3,000 yards with 25 touchdowns at Penn State from 2003 through 2006 and also caught 88 passes. Even though Brian Westbrook was in his prime, the Eagles used a 3rd-round pick on Hunt in 2007, making him the 90th player taken overall. In two seasons, Hunt got 14 carries for 25 yards for a 1.8 rushing average. Among 228 running backs drafted in the first three rounds in the last 25 years who had at least 10 career carries, that 1.8 average ranks 227th. Ahead of only Travis Prentice, the Browns’ 3rd-round pick in 2000. Prentice was 14-for-13 in his brief career, a 0.9 average. In the fourth quarter of an Eagles-Bears game at Soldier Field in Week 4 of 2008, the Eagles trailed 24-20 and had a 2nd-and-goal at the Bears’ 1-yard-line. Westbrook was out with an ankle injury, and for some reason Andy Reid called a Hunt run at the goal-line. There was a big hole behind right guard Max Jean-Gilles and right tackle Jon Runyan, but Hunt totally mis-read the play and ran up the middle, where he was stuffed for no gain by Bears safety Mike Brown. May have been the worst read I’ve ever seen by a running back. And the Eagles ended up losing. Hunt only got one more career carry before the Eagles released him in October. Not only did Hunt never play in the league again, he never even got into a camp with another team. During the stretch from 2003 through 2011, the Eagles drafted seven players in the third round under Big Red who started two or fewer career games: Billy McMullen in 2003, Matt Ware in 2004, Ryan Moats in 2005, Hunt in 2007, Bryan Smith in 2008, Daniel Te’o-Nesheim in 2010 and Curtis Marsh in 2011. Those seven 3rd-round picks taken in a nine-year span started a total of four games in an Eagles uniform.

WHO HAS THE RECORD??? If you asked 100 Eagles fans who has the highest rushing average in franchise history in a playoff game, probaly 98 of them (including me) would say Saquon Barkley from one of his big games in the 2024 run. He averaged 7.9 yards per carry against both the Rams and Commanders, and he and Hall of Famer Marion Motley are the only backs in NFL history to average 7.9 yards per carry (minimum 10 carries) in back-to-back postseason games. And Motley, Saquon and Marcus Allen are the only running backs with two such games in their entire career. (Lamar Jackson and Colin Kaepernick also had two). But what about the Eagles’ single-game record? Not Saquon, not Shady, not Westbrook, not Steve Van Buren. It’s Kenny Gainwell, who ran 12 times for 112 yards in the Eagles’ 38-7 win over the Giants in the 2022 conference semifinals at the Linc, a ridiculous 9.3 yards per carry. That’s also highest by any NFL running back in a playoff game in 25 years, since former Eagle Charlie Garner ran 15 times for 158 yards and a 10.5 average in the Raiders’ 38-24 win over the Jets in a 2001 wild-card game in Oakland. Someday I’ll go on a rant about how good Garner would have been with the Eagles if he had just gotten his life straightened out a little sooner. An incredible talent who didn’t get it all figured out till his sixth season. By then, the Eagles had given up on him.

A CRAZY SUPER BOWL STAT: In Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, the Patriots gained 613 yards and only had the ball for 25 minutes, 56 seconds. That means they averaged 23.6 yards per minute while they were on offense. Historic. But not enough.

PENALTY OR NAH? The more I watch Cooper DeJean’s pick-6 off Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIX, the more I’m surprised the refs didn’t call a block in the back on Jalyx Hunt, who buried Chiefs left guard Mike Caliendo at the 25-yard-line as Coop rambled by. It would have been a bad call, but we’ve seen blockers called for less. Moro Ojomo could have been called on one also near the goal-line with his block on right guard Trey Smith, but that would have been an even worse call. The other thing that never ceases to amaze me about that play is how DeJean got into the end zone when it looked like Joe Thuney and Smith had him surrounded inside the 5. And he was so close to stepping out of bounds in those final steps but somehow managed to stay in-bounds. Like so many iconic plays in Eagles history – DeSean’s punt return vs. the Giants, Eric Allen’s pick-6 off Boomer Esiason, Jalen’s Super Bowl touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith, B.G.’s strip sack, Philly Special – you notice something new every time you watch DeJean’s touchdown return. That’s why we can’t stop watching.

HOMEGROWN TALENT: Since 2008, a span of 18 years, 18 Eagles have netted at least 600 total receiving yards and 15 of them were drafted by the Eagles. The only exceptions are A.J. Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Darren Sproles, three pretty good players. But all the veteran retread WRs they’ve added – everyone from Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Rueben Randall, Jahan Dotson, Zach Pascal, Golden Tate, Miles Austin, Julio Jones, Parris Campbell, Dorial Green-Beckham to John Ross – have been failures to some extent. Travis Fulgham had a great month but quickly fizzled out. That’s why I’m curious how Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore will fare. They’re all guys who’ve had success at some point in their career, but recent history hasn’t been kind to those type of guys. Maybe it’s because Jalen Hurts just trusts A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert so much that he’s reluctant to throw the ball anywhere else. Maybe there’s something about the WR position where guys can just lose the ability to separate overnight when they get into their late 20s, like most of that group of former Eagles. Maybe changing schemes is just really hard for WRs. I feel like Wicks has a chance to be a pretty good player here and Brown as well. But if any of that trio succeeds here it will be the exception to the rule.

JALEN HURTS STAT OF THE WEEK: Only three quarterbacks drafted in the second round have won more playoff games than Jalen Hurts. Brett Favre won 13 in his 20-year career, Drew Brees won nine in 20 years and Ken Stabler won seven in 15 seasons. Hurts has won six in six seasons.

HOWIE’S BEST DRAFT PICKS AT EVERY POSITION: QB: Jalen Hurts, RB: Miles Sanders, WR: DeVonta Smith; TE: Dallas Goedert; Tackle: Lane Johnson; Guard: Landon Dickerson; Center: Jason Kelce; Defensive Tackle: Fletcher Cox; Edge: Brandon Graham; Off-ball linebacker: Mychal Kendricks; Safety: Kurt Coleman; Cornerback: Quinyon Mitchell.

HOWIE’S WORST DRAFT PICKS AT EVERY POSITION: QB: Clayton Thorson, RB: Donnel Pumphrey, WR: Jalen Reagor; TE: Cornelius Ingram; Tackle: Andre Dillard; Guard; Fireman Danny; Center: Brandon Washington; Defensive Tackle: Bennie Logan; Edge: Marcus Smith; Off-ball linebacker: Davion Taylor; Safety: Sydney Brown; Cornerback: Zech McPhearson.